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Identifying women with undetected ovarian cancer: independent and external validation of QC ancer ® ( O varian) prediction model
Author(s) -
Collins G.S.,
Altman D.G.
Publication year - 2013
Publication title -
european journal of cancer care
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.849
H-Index - 67
eISSN - 1365-2354
pISSN - 0961-5423
DOI - 10.1111/ecc.12015
Subject(s) - ovarian cancer , medicine , referral , cohort , receiver operating characteristic , cohort study , gynecology , oncology , cancer , family medicine
Early identification of ovarian cancer is an unresolved challenge and the predictive value of single symptoms is limited. We evaluated the performance of QC ancer ® ( O varian) prediction model for predicting the risk of ovarian cancer in a UK cohort of general practice patients. A total of 1.1 million patients registered with a general practice surgery between 1 J anuary 2000 and 30 J une 2008, aged 30–84 years with 735 ovarian cancer cases, were included in the analysis. Ovarian cancer was defined as incident diagnosis of ovarian cancer during the 2 years after study entry. The results from this independent and external validation of QC ancer ® ( O varian) prediction model demonstrated good performance on a large cohort of general practice patients. QC ancer ® ( O varian) had very good discrimination with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.86 and explained 59.9% of the variation. QC ancer ® ( O varian) was well calibrated across all tenths of risk and over all age. The 10% of women with the highest predicted risks included 64% of all ovarian cancer diagnoses over the next 2 years. QC ancer ® ( O varian) appears to be a useful tool for identifying undetected cases of ovarian cancer in primary care in the UK for early referral and investigation.