Bayley‐ III motor scale and neurological examination at 2 years do not predict motor skills at 4.5 years

Aim To determine whether Bayley Scales of Infant and Toddler Development (3rd edition) (Bayley‐ III ) motor scores and neurological examination at 2 years corrected age predict motor difficulties at 4.5 years corrected age. Method A prospective cohort study of children born at risk of neonatal hypoglycaemia in Waikato Hospital, Hamilton, New Zealand. Assessment at 2 years was performed using the Bayley‐ III motor scale and neurological examination, and at 4.5 years using the Movement Assessment Battery for Children (2nd edition) ( MABC ‐2). Results Of 333 children, 8 (2%) had Bayley‐ III motor scores below 85, and 50 (15%) had minor deficits on neurological assessment at 2 years; 89 (27%) scored less than or equal to the 15th centile, and 54 (16%) less than or equal to the 5th centile on MABC ‐2 at 4.5 years. Motor score, fine and gross motor subtest scores, and neurological assessments at 2 years were poorly predictive of motor difficulties at 4.5 years, explaining 0 to 7% of variance in MABC ‐2 scores. A Bayley‐ III motor score below 85 predicted MABC ‐2 scores less than or equal to the 15th centile with a positive predictive value of 30% and a negative predictive value of 74% (7% sensitivity and 94% specificity). Interpretation Bayley‐ III motor scale and neurological examination at 2 years were poorly predictive of motor difficulties at 4.5 years.