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Not Sustainable: India's Trade and Current Account Deficits
Author(s) -
NabarBhaduri Suranjana
Publication year - 2018
Publication title -
development and change
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.267
H-Index - 93
eISSN - 1467-7660
pISSN - 0012-155X
DOI - 10.1111/dech.12366
Subject(s) - current account , economics , recession , international economics , balance of trade , capital account , capital (architecture) , balance of payments , terms of trade , independence (probability theory) , fragility , monetary economics , macroeconomics , exchange rate , history , statistics , mathematics , archaeology , chemistry
India's trade balance and current account have shown persistent deficits for a major part of its post‐independence period. Since the mid‐2000s, trade deficits have increased perilously, with a sharp rise in both oil and non‐oil imports. India has relied on services exports, remittances and capital inflows to offset trade deficits and sustain the current account deficit. This article examines the sustainability of relying on capital inflows, remittances and services exports to sustain these persistent trade and current account deficits. It argues that all three sources entail elements of fragility. The recent global economic slowdown, economic recessions in the United States and Europe, slow economic recovery, low growth forecasts and possibility of a secular slowdown in the United States and Europe raise questions about whether services exports and remittances can continue to generate sufficient earnings to offset trade deficits. Relying on capital inflows also carries risks of financial fragility, with short‐term capital inflows and external commercial borrowings becoming more prominent in the Indian economy.