Biotic and abiotic determinants of finescale dace distribution at the southern edge of their range

Aim The factors that set range limits for animal populations can inform management plans aimed at maintaining regional biodiversity. We examine abiotic and biotic drivers of the distribution of finescale dace ( Chrosomus neogaeus ) in two Great Plains basins to identify limiting factors for a threatened freshwater fish population at the edge of their range. Location Great Plains, Nebraska, South Dakota and Wyoming, USA. Methods We investigated abiotic and biotic factors influencing the contemporary distribution of finescale dace in the Belle Fourche and Niobrara River basins with Random Forests classification models using fish surveys from multiple agencies spanning 2008–2019 and GIS‐derived environmental data. Results In both basins, finescale dace occurrence exhibited a nonlinear response to mean August water temperature. Abiotic covariates, including streamflow, water temperature and channel slope, were important limiting factors in the final model fit with Belle Fourche River basin surveys ( n  = 131). In contrast, a biotic covariate, native minnow richness, was the most important predictor of finescale dace occurrence in the Niobrara River basin model ( n  = 27). In the Niobrara River, native minnow richness was lower at sites with non‐native northern pike ( Esox lucius ). Main conclusions Basin‐specific analyses revealed context dependencies for species–environment relationships, which can inform targeted restoration actions. Similar relationships between water temperature and finescale dace occurrence across both basins suggest summer thermal habitat as a regional limiting factor. The importance of biotic interactions in the Niobrara River highlights an emergent threat from invasive predators to a distinct assemblage of native prairie fishes.