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Patterns of abundance across geographical ranges as a predictor for responses to climate change: Evidence from UK rocky shores
Author(s) -
Vye Siobhan R.,
Dickens Stephanie,
Adams Leoni,
Bohn Katrin,
Chenery Jade,
Dobson Nicola,
Dunn Ruth E.,
Earp Hannah S.,
Evans Megan,
Foster Charlotte,
Grist Hannah,
Holt Ben,
Hull Sue,
Jenkins Stuart R.,
Lamont Peter,
Long Sarah,
Mieszkowska Nova,
Millard Justine,
Morrall Zoe,
Pack Kathryn,
ParryWilson Hannah,
Pocklington Jacqueline,
Pottas Jane,
Richardson Leonie,
Scott Abigail,
Sugden Heather,
Watson Gordon,
West Victoria,
Winton Debbie,
Delany Jane,
Burrows Michael T.
Publication year - 2020
Publication title -
diversity and distributions
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.918
H-Index - 118
eISSN - 1472-4642
pISSN - 1366-9516
DOI - 10.1111/ddi.13118
Subject(s) - abundance (ecology) , range (aeronautics) , ecology , macroecology , species distribution , intertidal zone , relative species abundance , relative abundance distribution , climate change , species richness , biology , invertebrate , geography , habitat , materials science , composite material
Aim Understanding patterns in the abundance of species across thermal ranges can give useful insights into the potential impacts of climate change. The abundant‐centre hypothesis suggests that species will reach peak abundance at the centre of their thermal range where conditions are optimal, but evidence in support of this hypothesis is mixed and limited in geographical and taxonomic scope. We tested the applicability of the abundant‐centre hypothesis across a range of intertidal organisms using a large, citizen science‐generated data set. Location UK. Methods Species' abundance records were matched with their location within their thermal range. Patterns in abundance distribution for individual species, and across aggregated species abundances, were analysed using Kruskal–Wallis tests and quantile general additive models. Results Individually, invertebrate species showed increasing abundances in the cooler half of the thermal range and decreasing abundances in the warmer half of the thermal range. The overall shape for aggregated invertebrate species abundances reflected a broad peak, with a cool‐skewed maximum abundance. Algal species showed little evidence for an abundant‐centre distribution individually, but overall the aggregated species abundances suggested a hump‐backed abundance distribution. Main Conclusions Our study follows others in showing mixed support for the abundant‐centre hypothesis at an individual species level, but demonstrates an increased predictability in species responses when an aggregated overall response is considered.

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