Open AccessThe past, present and potential future distributions of cold‐adapted bird species
Author(s) -
Smith Sarah E.,
Gregory Richard D.,
Anderson Barbara J.,
Thomas Chris D.
Publication year - 2013
Publication title -
diversity and distributions
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.918
H-Index - 118
eISSN - 1472-4642
pISSN - 1366-9516
DOI - 10.1111/ddi.12025
Subject(s) - lagopus , climate change , geography , ecology , downscaling , species distribution , physical geography , climate model , last glacial maximum , environmental science , climatology , biology , habitat , arctic , geology , holocene , archaeology
Aim Species' distributions change through time, and many species have recently shifted their ranges in response to anthropogenic climate change. However, predicting future distributional changes remains a challenge. We tested the ability of climate‐only distributional models, built using present‐day climate data, to project distributions of four E uropean bird species during the L ast G lacial M aximum. P rojected distributions under past climate scenarios were compared with fossil data to gauge the validity of the projections. Location Europe and N orth A frica (30°N–82°N, 31°W–61°E). Methods We generated generalized additive models (GAMs) between the present‐day climate and distributions of four cold‐adapted bird species. These models were projected onto climatic conditions representative of the L ast G lacial M aximum ( LGM , 21,000 years ago) and future conditions (2080s). We tested the capacity of these climate‐only models to produce realistic projections under colder, past climates using fossil distributional data. Results Models and empirical data both indicate that the W illow grouse L agopus lagopus and R ock ptarmigan L agopus mutus occurred at lower latitudes during the LGM , compared with their current distributions, whereas the currently montane Y ellow‐billed chough P yrrhocorax graculus and W hite‐winged snowfinch M ontifringilla nivalis would have had broadly similar LGM and present‐day distributions. Models and empirical data agree that all four species co‐occurred at the LGM in central/southern E urope, although they do not do so today. Future projections indicate that the LGM four‐species community may be reunited in S candinavia by the end of this century if the southern species are able to colonize. Main Conclusions Our results suggest that climatic constraints are sufficient to capture the key attributes of the distributional changes in these four bird species, revealing individualistic responses and community disassembly and re‐assembly through time and space.