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The Stagnant Export Upgrading in Northeast China: Evidence from Value‐added Tax Reform
Author(s) -
Du Yan,
Yang Mengkai,
Li Jing,
Li Yug
Publication year - 2020
Publication title -
china and world economy
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.815
H-Index - 28
eISSN - 1749-124X
pISSN - 1671-2234
DOI - 10.1111/cwe.12341
Subject(s) - sophistication , economics , china , value added tax , tax reform , investment (military) , productivity , tax credit , robustness (evolution) , international economics , monetary economics , business , macroeconomics , market economy , public economics , social science , biochemistry , chemistry , sociology , politics , political science , gene , law
China's 2004 value‐added tax (VAT) pilot reform in the Northeast region, which changed the VAT from production type to consumption type, introduced a sizable tax credit for fixed investment in manufacturing industries, leading to more investment and higher productivity at firm level. This paper, however, uses difference‐in‐difference estimation and finds a negative structural effect; that is, the VAT pilot reform leads to a reduction in the export sophistication of Northeast cities relative to other cities in China, and the results hold for a battery of robustness checks. It is found that resources are reallocated towards less‐sophisticated industries. As the products with higher export sophistication are more skill and research and development (R&D) intensive, the shortfalls of skilled labor and R&D spending hinder the upgrading process. With a new round of revitalization plans in the Northeast, policymakers should be cautious with similar structural effects and focus on increasing skilled labor supply and R&D investment.