Open AccessHuman‐driven habitat conversion is a more immediate threat to Amboseli elephants than climate change
Author(s) -
Boult Victoria L.,
Fishlock Vicki,
Quaife Tristan,
Hawkins Ed,
Moss Cynthia,
Lee Phyllis C.,
Sibly Richard M.
Publication year - 2019
Publication title -
conservation science and practice
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
ISSN - 2578-4854
DOI - 10.1111/csp2.87
Subject(s) - climate change , population , habitat , environmental resource management , habitat destruction , ecosystem , biodiversity , population growth , geography , ecology , environmental science , biology , demography , sociology
Global ecosystem change presents a major challenge to biodiversity conservation, which must identify and prioritize the most critical threats to species persistence given limited available funding. Mechanistic models enable robust predictions under future conditions and can consider multiple stressors in combination. Here we use an individual‐based model (IBM) to predict elephant population size in Amboseli, southern Kenya, under environmental scenarios incorporating climate change and anthropogenic habitat loss. The IBM uses projected food availability as a key driver of elephant population dynamics and relates variation in food availability to changes in vital demographic rates through an energy budget. Habitat loss, rather than climate change, represents the most significant threat to the persistence of the Amboseli elephant population in the 21st century and highlights the importance of collaborations and agreements that preserve space for Amboseli elephants to ensure the population remains resilient to environmental stochasticity.