Open AccessRisk‐sensitive planning for conserving coral reefs under rapid climate change
Author(s) -
Beyer Hawthorne L.,
Kennedy Emma V.,
Beger Maria,
Chen Chaolun Allen,
Cinner Joshua E.,
Darling Emily S.,
Eakin C. Mark,
Gates Ruth D.,
Heron Scott F.,
Knowlton Nancy,
Obura David O.,
Palumbi Stephen R.,
Possingham Hugh P.,
Puotinen Marji,
Runting Rebecca K.,
Skirving William J.,
Spalding Mark,
Wilson Kerrie A.,
Wood Sally,
Veron John E.,
HoeghGuldberg Ove
Publication year - 2018
Publication title -
conservation letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 3.153
H-Index - 79
ISSN - 1755-263X
DOI - 10.1111/conl.12587
Subject(s) - coral reef , climate change , reef , threatened species , resilience of coral reefs , ecosystem , coral reef organizations , coral reef protection , environmental resource management , geography , environmental science , ecology , habitat , biology
Coral reef ecosystems are seriously threatened by changing conditions in the ocean. Although many factors are implicated, climate change has emerged as a dominant and rapidly growing threat. Developing a long‐term strategic plan for the conservation of coral reefs is urgently needed yet is complicated by significant uncertainty associated with climate change impacts on coral reef ecosystems. We use Modern Portfolio Theory to identify coral reef locations globally that, in the absence of other impacts, are likely to have a heightened chance of surviving projected climate changes relative to other reefs. Long‐term planning that is robust to uncertainty in future conditions provides an objective and transparent framework for guiding conservation action and strategic investment. These locations constitute important opportunities for novel conservation investments to secure less vulnerable yet well‐connected coral reefs that may, in turn, help to repopulate degraded areas in the event that the climate has stabilized.