Open AccessThe Effect of Applying Alternate IPCC Climate Scenarios to Marine Reserve Design for Range Changing Species
Author(s) -
Makino Azusa,
Klein Carissa J.,
Possingham Hugh P.,
Yamano Hiroya,
Yara Yumiko,
Ariga Toshinori,
Matsuhasi Keisuke,
Beger Maria
Publication year - 2014
Publication title -
conservation letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 3.153
H-Index - 79
ISSN - 1755-263X
DOI - 10.1111/conl.12147
Subject(s) - representative concentration pathways , climate change , environmental science , range (aeronautics) , greenhouse gas , environmental resource management , marine reserve , biodiversity , climate change mitigation , general circulation model , marine protected area , ecology , biology , fishing , habitat , materials science , composite material
Effectively protecting of biodiversity in the future relies on reserves that accommodate potential climate change impacts. Climate predictions are based on plausible ranges of greenhouse gas concentration scenarios from the IPCC, called Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). It is unknown how different scenarios influence spatial prioritization, particularly for species that change their range due to climate change. Using corals in Japan, we explore differences in priorities under three RCPs (RCP8.5, 4.5, and 2.6), comparing three time frames (current conditions, near future, and distant future). We targeted three temperature zones representing different coral community types, determined from predictions of sea‐surface temperature for three RCPs. Results showed that using one RCP prediction to design a reserve system does a poor job at meeting conservation targets for other RCPs, missing up to 100% of the targets. We emphasize the importance of focusing conservation investment in “no regrets” areas that are important under every RCP.