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Inference and Explanation in Counterfactual Reasoning
Author(s) -
Rips Lance J.,
Edwards Brian J.
Publication year - 2013
Publication title -
cognitive science
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.498
H-Index - 114
eISSN - 1551-6709
pISSN - 0364-0213
DOI - 10.1111/cogs.12024
Subject(s) - counterfactual thinking , counterfactual conditional , antecedent (behavioral psychology) , component (thermodynamics) , causal reasoning , probabilistic logic , causal inference , causal model , simple (philosophy) , independence (probability theory) , cognitive psychology , computer science , psychology , causality (physics) , inference , social psychology , artificial intelligence , econometrics , cognition , mathematics , epistemology , statistics , philosophy , physics , quantum mechanics , neuroscience , thermodynamics
This article reports results from two studies of how people answer counterfactual questions about simple machines. Participants learned about devices that have a specific configuration of components, and they answered questions of the form “If component X had not operated [failed], would component Y have operated?” The data from these studies indicate that participants were sensitive to the way in which the antecedent state is described—whether component X “had not operated” or “had failed.” Answers also depended on whether the device is deterministic or probabilistic—whether X's causal parents “always” or only “usually” cause X to operate. Participants' explanations of their answers often invoked non‐operation of causally prior components or unreliability of prior connections. They less often mentioned independence from these causal elements.