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The effect of the Canada–China canola trade dispute on canola prices
Author(s) -
Wells Jacob,
Slade Peter
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
canadian journal of agricultural economics/revue canadienne d'agroeconomie
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.505
H-Index - 37
eISSN - 1744-7976
pISSN - 0008-3976
DOI - 10.1111/cjag.12258
Subject(s) - canola , china , counterfactual thinking , negotiation , agricultural economics , economics , international trade , international economics , business , agronomy , geography , biology , political science , law , philosophy , archaeology , epistemology
In March 2019, China revoked the canola export licenses of two major Canadian exporters. We estimate the impact of these restrictions on Canadian canola prices. Using a vector error correction model to generate counterfactual prices, we estimate that between March 2019 and February 2020 canola prices were 3.6% lower than would have been expected in the absence of the import restrictions. We discuss the implications of our finding for both the ongoing negotiations between Canada and China and producer support in Canada.