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The Dynamics of Pest Resistance Management: The Case of Refuge Fields for Bt Crops
Author(s) -
Desquilbet Marion,
Herrmann Markus
Publication year - 2016
Publication title -
canadian journal of agricultural economics/revue canadienne d'agroeconomie
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.505
H-Index - 37
eISSN - 1744-7976
pISSN - 0008-3976
DOI - 10.1111/cjag.12071
Subject(s) - pest analysis , bacillus thuringiensis , time horizon , resistance (ecology) , integrated pest management , population , discrete time and continuous time , ecology , biology , mathematics , mathematical optimization , statistics , botany , genetics , demography , sociology , bacteria
We examine the optimal time‐variant refuge policy to manage pest resistance to Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) crops in a finite, discrete‐time horizon model. We identify analytically the intertemporal effects of refuge fields on the pest population and its susceptibility. The shape of the optimal refuge policy and whether or not pest susceptibility should be exhausted completely at the end of the time horizon depend crucially on the values of a cost premium of Bt seeds and the fitness cost of resistance (over mortality of resistant pests) and are addressed via numerical simulations. We demonstrate the importance of modeling the dynamics of the biological system accurately, of defining a diploid (and not haploid) biological model, and of using a discrete‐time (rather than continuous‐time) framework.