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The Development of Nonsymbolic Probability Judgments in Children
Author(s) -
O'Grady Shaun,
Xu Fei
Publication year - 2019
Publication title -
child development
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 3.103
H-Index - 257
eISSN - 1467-8624
pISSN - 0009-3920
DOI - 10.1111/cdev.13222
Subject(s) - numerosity adaptation effect , psychology , heuristic , developmental psychology , child development , cognitive psychology , statistics , cognition , mathematics , artificial intelligence , computer science , neuroscience
Two experiments were designed to investigate the developmental trajectory of children's probability approximation abilities. In Experiment 1, results revealed 6‐ and 7‐year‐old children's ( N = 48) probability judgments improve with age and become more accurate as the distance between two ratios increases. Experiment 2 replicated these findings with 7‐ to 12‐year‐old children ( N = 130) while also accounting for the effect of the size and the perceived numerosity of target objects. Older children's performance suggested the correct use of proportions for estimating probability; but in some cases, children relied on heuristic shortcuts. These results suggest that children's nonsymbolic probability judgments show a clear distance effect and that the acuity of probability estimations increases with age.