Beliefs About Thought Probability: Evidence for Persistent Errors in Mindreading and Links to Executive Control

Four‐ to 10‐year‐olds' and adults' ( N  = 263) ability to inhibit privileged knowledge and simulate a naïve perspective were examined. Participants viewed pictures that were then occluded aside from a small ambiguous part. They offered suggestions for how a naïve person might interpret the hidden pictures, as well as rated the probability that a naïve person would think of several different pictures (with one picture being the actual item). Results indicated a significant increase between ages 4 and 7 years in attributing novel interpretations; however, all age groups overestimated the probability that a naïve person could guess the actual pictures. Individual differences in working memory and inhibitory control predicted participants' thought suggestions as well as aspects of their probability judgments.