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Estimating the trade and welfare effects of Brexit: A panel data structural gravity model
Author(s) -
Oberhofer Harald,
Pfaffermayr Michael
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
canadian journal of economics/revue canadienne d'économique
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.773
H-Index - 69
eISSN - 1540-5982
pISSN - 0008-4085
DOI - 10.1111/caje.12494
Subject(s) - brexit , counterfactual thinking , economics , welfare , panel data , gravity model of trade , international economics , offset (computer science) , international trade , econometrics , european union , market economy , philosophy , epistemology , computer science , programming language
This paper proposes a new panel data structural gravity approach for estimating the trade and welfare effects of Brexit. Assuming different counterfactual post‐Brexit scenarios, our main findings suggest that the UK's exports of goods to the EU are likely to decline within a range between 7.2% and 45.7% six years after Brexit has taken place. For the UK, the negative trade effects are only partially offset by an increase in domestic trade and trade with third countries, inducing a decline in the UK's real income of between 0.3% and 5.7%. The estimated welfare effects for the EU are not different from zero, but some members like Ireland are expected to also experience welfare losses.