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World steel production: A new monthly indicator of global real economic activity
Author(s) -
Ravazzolo Francesco,
Vespignani Joaquin
Publication year - 2020
Publication title -
canadian journal of economics/revue canadienne d'économique
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.773
H-Index - 69
eISSN - 1540-5982
pISSN - 0008-4085
DOI - 10.1111/caje.12442
Subject(s) - index (typography) , production (economics) , industrial production index , autoregressive model , benchmark (surveying) , real gross domestic product , industrial production , economics , economic indicator , world economy , econometrics , real world data , macroeconomics , computer science , geography , cartography , data science , world wide web , political science , law
Abstract This paper proposes world steel production as an indicator of global real economic activity. World steel production data is published with only a one‐month delay, thereby providing timely information for world real GDP forecasters. We find that world steel production and Lutz Kilian's (2009) index of global real economic activity generate large gains in forecasting world real GDP, relative to an autoregressive benchmark. A forecast combination of world steel production, Kilian's (2009) index of global real economic activity and an index of the industrial production of OECD countries plus six non‐OECD emerging economies produces significant gains in forecasting world real GDP, relative to an autoregressive benchmark