Premium
Exports, investment and policy uncertainty
Author(s) -
Greenland Andrew,
Ion Mihai,
Lopresti John
Publication year - 2019
Publication title -
canadian journal of economics/revue canadienne d'économique
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.773
H-Index - 69
eISSN - 1540-5982
pISSN - 0008-4085
DOI - 10.1111/caje.12400
Subject(s) - sunk costs , margin (machine learning) , economics , investment (military) , value (mathematics) , international economics , econometrics , monetary economics , microeconomics , machine learning , politics , computer science , political science , law
Building on a literature that underscores the value of delaying investment in the face of uncertainty, we study how policy uncertainty in 18 large economies affects exports to these economies. We decompose aggregate bilateral trade flows from 1995 to 2013 into intensive and extensive margin components and employ a gravity specification to assess the impact of policy uncertainty on each margin separately. Consistent with theory, increases in policy uncertainty decrease both trade values and the extensive margin but, if anything, increase the intensive margin. In further tests, we use various proxies for sunk export costs and demonstrate that the effects of policy uncertainty are more pronounced where sunk costs are higher.