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Heterogeneity in the dynamic effects of uncertainty on investment
Author(s) -
Byun Sung Je,
Jo Soojin
Publication year - 2018
Publication title -
canadian journal of economics/revue canadienne d'économique
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.773
H-Index - 69
eISSN - 1540-5982
pISSN - 0008-4085
DOI - 10.1111/caje.12318
Subject(s) - economics , econometrics , investment (military) , exploit , profit (economics) , aggregate (composite) , standard deviation , microeconomics , statistics , computer science , materials science , computer security , politics , political science , law , composite material , mathematics
Abstract We examine how aggregate profit uncertainty influences capital investment activities, focusing on heterogeneous responses of firms. We model aggregate profit uncertainty as the conditional standard deviation of a common factor across unforecasted fluctuations in the sales growth of different industries and exploit cross‐sectional variations for its estimation. From an investment forecasting model that coherently analyzes firm‐ or group‐specific effects of uncertainty, we find that the direction and the size of investment adjustment vary considerably across firms, with a significant but small negative average impact. Our results highlight the importance of accounting for heterogeneity in the transmission of uncertainty, allowing us to reconcile different views on the effect of uncertainty in the existing literature.