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An empirical study of credit shock transmission in a small open economy
Author(s) -
Bedock Nathan,
Stevanović Dalibor
Publication year - 2017
Publication title -
canadian journal of economics/revue canadienne d'économique
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.773
H-Index - 69
eISSN - 1540-5982
pISSN - 0008-4085
DOI - 10.1111/caje.12269
Subject(s) - shock (circulatory) , economics , credit crunch , monetary economics , variance decomposition of forecast errors , small open economy , credit cycle , financial crisis , real economy , bond market , credit valuation adjustment , business cycle , credit risk , monetary policy , finance , econometrics , macroeconomics , credit reference , medicine
In this paper, we identify and estimate the dynamic effects of foreign (US) and national (Canadian) credit shocks in a small open economy. We use standard credit spreads as proxies to the external finance premium. Our first result suggests that the US and Canadian credit spreads contain substantial forecasting power for several measures of the Canadian real economic activity, especially during the recent financial crisis and its aftermath. Secondly, an adverse US credit shock generates a significant and persistent economic slowdown in Canada: the national external finance premium rises immediately while interest rates, credit aggregates, output and employment indicators decline. Variance decomposition reveals that credit shocks have a sizeable effect on real activity measures, leading indicators and credit spreads. Yet, the unexpected shocks in domestic credit spreads are not able to generate any significant dynamic response of the real activity once we control for the US credit market conditions.