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La projection d'un décalage spatial de l'habitat de l'érable à sucre en Ontario suite aux changements climatiques : une approche fondée sur les SIG
Author(s) -
Brown Laura J.,
Lamhonwah Daniel,
Murphy Brenda L.
Publication year - 2015
Publication title -
the canadian geographer / le géographe canadien
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.35
H-Index - 46
eISSN - 1541-0064
pISSN - 0008-3658
DOI - 10.1111/cag.12197
Subject(s) - maple , climate change , habitat , range (aeronautics) , precipitation , environmental science , geography , ecology , physical geography , environmental change , ecosystem , global change , biology , meteorology , materials science , composite material
Canada is the world's largest producer of maple syrup. Syrup production depends on weather and climatic conditions of the sugarbush. However, forest ecosystems are highly sensitive to climate change. The effect of rapidly changing precipitation and temperature patterns on tree species is of concern as these long‐lived organisms cannot quickly adapt to the new environmental conditions in which they find themselves. As temperatures increase it is expected that there will be a change in species' ranges poleward. This study uses Multi‐Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) and Geographic Information System (GIS) weighted sum analysis to project near future (2050) and distant future (2100) suitability maps of sugar maple (Acer saccharum) habitat in Ontario associated with three different Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) scenarios. Our maps project an overall decrease in the amount of suitable habitat within the current sugar maple range under the scenarios modelled, which intensifies in the later time period. Furthermore there is a projected shift in central and southern Ontario from a region dominated by suitable habitat to one dominated by unsuitable habitat.