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Novel nomograms for castration‐resistant prostate cancer and survival outcome in patients with de novo bone metastatic prostate cancer
Author(s) -
Zhao Jinge,
Sun Guangxi,
Liao Banghua,
Zhang Xingming,
Armstrong Cameron M.,
Yin Xiaoxue,
Liu Jiandong,
Chen Junru,
Yang Yaojing,
Zhao Peng,
Tang Qidun,
Wang Zhenghao,
Chen Zhibin,
Li Xiong,
Wei Qiang,
Li Xiang,
Chen Ni,
Gao Allen C.,
Shen Pengfei,
Zeng Hao
Publication year - 2018
Publication title -
bju international
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.773
H-Index - 148
eISSN - 1464-410X
pISSN - 1464-4096
DOI - 10.1111/bju.14398
Subject(s) - nomogram , medicine , prostate cancer , oncology , prostatic acid phosphatase , incidence (geometry) , proportional hazards model , concordance , cohort , prostate , prostate specific antigen , cancer , urology , physics , optics
Objectives To develop nomograms predicting the incidence of castration‐resistant prostate cancer ( CRPC ) and overall survival ( OS ) for de novo metastatic prostate cancer ( PC a). Patients and Methods Data from 449 patients with de novo metastatic PC a were retrospectively analysed. Patients were randomly divided into a training ( n = 314, 70%) and a validation cohort ( n = 135, 30%). Predictive factors were selected using a Cox proportional hazards model and were further used for building predictive models. The outcomes were incidence of CRPC and OS . Results Predictive factors included: Gleason score ( GS ), intraductal carcinoma of the prostate ( IDC ‐P), Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group status, and alkaline phosphatase, haemoglobin and prostate‐specific antigen levels. IDC ‐P and GS were the strongest prognosticators for both the incidence of CRPC and OS . Nomograms for predicting CRPC and OS had an internal validated concordance index of 0.762 and 0.723, respectively. Based on the β coefficients of the final model, risk classification systems were constructed. For those with favourable, intermediate and poor prognosis, the median time to CRPC was 62.6, 28.0 and 13.0 months ( P < 0.001), respectively; and the median OS was not reached, 55.0 and 33.0 months, respectively ( P < 0.001). Conclusions We developed two novel nomograms to predict the incidence of CRPC and OS for patients with de novo metastatic PC a. These tools may assist in physician decision‐making and the designing of clinical trials.