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Looking back on the L ondon O lympics: Independent outcome and hindsight effects in decision evaluation
Author(s) -
Blank Hartmut,
Diedenhofen Birk,
Musch Jochen
Publication year - 2015
Publication title -
british journal of social psychology
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.855
H-Index - 98
eISSN - 2044-8309
pISSN - 0144-6665
DOI - 10.1111/bjso.12116
Subject(s) - hindsight bias , outcome (game theory) , psychology , social psychology , microeconomics , economics
Outcome bias and hindsight bias are related, but how exactly? To remedy theoretical ambiguity and non‐existent directly relevant empirical research, we contrast an older idea ( B aron & H ershey, 1988, J . P ers . S oc . P sychol ., 54, 569) that sees outcome bias as partly mediated through hindsight bias with the idea that the two biases independently affect decision evaluations. In an I nternet study of retrospections on the 2012 L ondon O lympics, evaluations of the G ames' success and its foreseeability had independent effects on evaluations of the I nternational O lympic C ommittee's decision to award the O lympics to L ondon; there was no evidence of mediation. Further theoretical discussion emphasizes the need to distinguish between a holistic assessment of decisions and a more specific assessment of the decision‐making process in future outcome bias research.