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Estimating individualized treatment rules for ordinal treatments
Author(s) -
Chen Jingxiang,
Fu Haoda,
He Xuanyao,
Kosorok Michael R.,
Liu Yufeng
Publication year - 2018
Publication title -
biometrics
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.298
H-Index - 130
eISSN - 1541-0420
pISSN - 0006-341X
DOI - 10.1111/biom.12865
Subject(s) - consistency (knowledge bases) , outcome (game theory) , observational study , computer science , piecewise , ordinal regression , machine learning , artificial intelligence , medicine , mathematics , mathematical optimization , statistics , mathematical analysis , mathematical economics
Summary Precision medicine is an emerging scientific topic for disease treatment and prevention that takes into account individual patient characteristics. It is an important direction for clinical research, and many statistical methods have been proposed recently. One of the primary goals of precision medicine is to obtain an optimal individual treatment rule (ITR), which can help make decisions on treatment selection according to each patient's specific characteristics. Recently, outcome weighted learning (OWL) has been proposed to estimate such an optimal ITR in a binary treatment setting by maximizing the expected clinical outcome. However, for ordinal treatment settings, such as individualized dose finding, it is unclear how to use OWL. In this article, we propose a new technique for estimating ITR with ordinal treatments. In particular, we propose a data duplication technique with a piecewise convex loss function. We establish Fisher consistency for the resulting estimated ITR under certain conditions, and obtain the convergence and risk bound properties. Simulated examples and an application to a dataset from a type 2 diabetes mellitus observational study demonstrate the highly competitive performance of the proposed method compared to existing alternatives.