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A framework for Bayesian nonparametric inference for causal effects of mediation
Author(s) -
Kim Chanmin,
Daniels Michael J.,
Marcus Bess H.,
Roy Jason A.
Publication year - 2017
Publication title -
biometrics
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.298
H-Index - 130
eISSN - 1541-0420
pISSN - 0006-341X
DOI - 10.1111/biom.12575
Subject(s) - conditional independence , causal inference , econometrics , prior probability , dirichlet process , bayesian probability , computer science , dirichlet distribution , covariate , joint probability distribution , sensitivity (control systems) , mathematics , artificial intelligence , statistics , mathematical analysis , electronic engineering , engineering , boundary value problem
Summary We propose a Bayesian non‐parametric (BNP) framework for estimating causal effects of mediation, the natural direct, and indirect, effects. The strategy is to do this in two parts. Part 1 is a flexible model (using BNP) for the observed data distribution. Part 2 is a set of uncheckable assumptions with sensitivity parameters that in conjunction with Part 1 allows identification and estimation of the causal parameters and allows for uncertainty about these assumptions via priors on the sensitivity parameters. For Part 1, we specify a Dirichlet process mixture of multivariate normals as a prior on the joint distribution of the outcome, mediator, and covariates. This approach allows us to obtain a (simple) closed form of each marginal distribution. For Part 2, we consider two sets of assumptions: (a) the standard sequential ignorability (Imai et al., 2010) and (b) weakened set of the conditional independence type assumptions introduced in Daniels et al. (2012) and propose sensitivity analyses for both. We use this approach to assess mediation in a physical activity promotion trial.