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Bayesian designs and the control of frequentist characteristics: A practical solution
Author(s) -
Ventz Steffen,
Trippa Lorenzo
Publication year - 2015
Publication title -
biometrics
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.298
H-Index - 130
eISSN - 1541-0420
pISSN - 0006-341X
DOI - 10.1111/biom.12226
Subject(s) - frequentist inference , bayesian probability , computer science , set (abstract data type) , machine learning , bayesian inference , artificial intelligence , programming language
Summary Frequentist concepts, such as the control of the type I error or the false discovery rate, are well established in the medical literature and often required by regulators. Most Bayesian designs are defined without explicit considerations of frequentist characteristics. Once the Bayesian design is structured, statisticians use simulations and adjust tuning parameters to comply with a set of targeted operating characteristics. These adjustments affect the use of prior information and utility functions. Here we consider a Bayesian decision theoretic approach for experimental designs with explicit frequentist requisites. We define optimal designs under a set of constraints required by a regulator. Our approach combines the use of interpretable utility functions with frequentist criteria, and selects an optimal design that satisfies a set of required operating characteristics. We illustrate the approach using a group‐sequential multi‐arm Phase II trial and a bridging trial.