The Future of the San Francisco System: Pressures and Prospects

This article discusses the pressures on the San Francisco System, and argues that despite these challenges, the hub‐and‐spokes framework is likely to persist. While the impact of these pressures on individual alliances may vary, this system as a whole is expected to modify in three primary ways. Specifically, the San Francisco System is likely to become more diffused, selectively interconnected, as well as characterized by more insecurity toward the alliances on the part of both the United States and its allies. The worst‐case scenario for all U.S. regional allies would be being forced to choose between the United States and China. In this sense, the evolution of the U.S. hub‐and‐spokes system toward something that is more diffused and interconnected might, in the longer term, help allies to avoid such a situation amid increasing pressures.