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The Philippines: Hedging in a Post‐Arbitration South China Sea?
Author(s) -
Quintos Mary Fides A.
Publication year - 2018
Publication title -
asian politics and policy
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.193
H-Index - 12
eISSN - 1943-0787
pISSN - 1943-0779
DOI - 10.1111/aspp.12394
Subject(s) - tribunal , arbitration , china , geopolitics , position (finance) , contingency , political science , foreign policy , economics , law , finance , politics , linguistics , philosophy
One of the major foreign policy decisions that then newly sworn‐in Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte had to make was on the implementation of the 12 July 2016 Arbitral Tribunal's Award on the Philippines v. China case on the South China Sea, amid China's adamant position that it does not recognize the ruling of the tribunal. This article explores how the strategy of hedging is the optimal choice in pursuing the Philippines’ foreign policy particularly in a post‐arbitration environment, in light of current developments and geopolitical realities in the region. In particular, it provides insights on why betting on multiple alternative positions that include both returns‐maximizing and risk‐contingency measures can best serve the Philippines’ interests and be vehicles to promote compliance with the Award.