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The scientific and political legacy of the UK Climate Projections ( UKCP 09): an undergraduate perspective
Author(s) -
Kelly N M S
Publication year - 2014
Publication title -
area
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.958
H-Index - 82
eISSN - 1475-4762
pISSN - 0004-0894
DOI - 10.1111/area.12067
Subject(s) - retrenchment , climate change , politics , adaptation (eye) , perspective (graphical) , downscaling , government (linguistics) , probabilistic logic , political science , computer science , public administration , psychology , ecology , law , linguistics , philosophy , neuroscience , artificial intelligence , biology
The 2008 Climate Change Act and ‘adaptation reporting power’ afforded to the UK Government have generated demand for information on future climate risks. The UK Climate Projections 2009 ( UKCP 09) are the latest generation of national climate change scenarios. This Commentary reflects on the enduring scientific and political contribution of UKCP 09 as evidenced by academic literature, adaptation reports and media perspectives. It is contested that the more explicit treatment of uncertainty by the UKCP 09 projections compared with the predecessor ( UKCIP 02) was a significant step forward. User unfamiliarity with the probabilistic format can be managed through support and guidance, so the complexity of UKCP 09 need not be limiting. Some may question the value added by climate modelling (and downscaling) to adaptation planning given present fiscal retrenchment. However, the benefit of UKCP 09 could be greater than expected, especially if new ways of responding to climate uncertainty emerge.