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Optimization of heart allocation: The transplant risk score
Author(s) -
Jasseron Carine,
Legeai Camille,
Jacquelinet Christian,
NubretLe Coniat Karine,
Flécher Erwan,
Cantrelle Christelle,
Audry Benoît,
Bastien Olivier,
Dorent Richard
Publication year - 2019
Publication title -
american journal of transplantation
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.89
H-Index - 188
eISSN - 1600-6143
pISSN - 1600-6135
DOI - 10.1111/ajt.15201
Subject(s) - medicine , framingham risk score , population , cohort , surgery , proportional hazards model , diabetes mellitus , heart transplantation , cardiology , transplantation , disease , environmental health , endocrinology
The new French heart allocation system is designed to minimize waitlist mortality and extend the donor pool without a detrimental effect on posttransplant survival. This study was designed to construct a 1‐year posttransplant graft‐loss risk score incorporating recipient and donor characteristics. The study included all adult first single‐organ recipients transplanted between 2010 and 2014 (N = 1776). This population was randomly divided in a 2:1 ratio into derivation and validation cohorts. The association of variables with 1‐year graft loss was determined with a mixed Cox model with center as random effect. The predictors were used to generate a transplant‐risk score ( TRS ). Donor‐recipient matching was assessed using 2 separate recipient‐ and donor‐risk scores. Factors associated with 1‐year graft loss were recipient age >50 years, valvular cardiomyopathy and congenital heart disease, previous cardiac surgery, diabetes, mechanical ventilation, glomerular filtration rate and bilirubin, donor age >55 years, and donor sex: female. The C‐index of the final model was 0.70. Correlation between observed and predicted graft loss rate was excellent for the overall cohort ( r = 0.90). Hearts from high‐risk donors transplanted to low‐risk recipients had similar survival as those from low‐risk donors. The TRS provides an accurate prediction of 1‐year graft‐loss risk and allows optimal donor‐recipient matching.