Premium
Born Weak, Growing Strong: Anti‐Government Protests as a Signal of Rebel Strength in the Context of Civil Wars
Author(s) -
Leventoğlu Bahar,
Metternich Nils W.
Publication year - 2018
Publication title -
american journal of political science
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 6.347
H-Index - 170
eISSN - 1540-5907
pISSN - 0092-5853
DOI - 10.1111/ajps.12356
Subject(s) - negotiation , government (linguistics) , context (archaeology) , argument (complex analysis) , political science , political economy , power (physics) , politics , civil conflict , core (optical fiber) , civil society , sociology , law , engineering , history , archaeology , telecommunications , philosophy , linguistics , biochemistry , chemistry , physics , quantum mechanics
All rebel organizations start weak, but how do they grow and achieve favorable conflict outcomes? We present a theoretical model that allows for rebel organizations to gain support beyond their “core” and build their bargaining power during fighting. We highlight that rebel organizations need to win over crucial parts of society to generate the necessary support that allows them to attain favorable civil conflict outcomes. We find empirical support for the argument that lowincome individuals who initially fight the government (rebel organizations) have to convince middle-class individuals to turn out against the government to gain government concessions. Empirically, we demonstrate that government concessions in the form of peace agreements and the onset of negotiations become more likely when protest occurs in the context of civil