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Predicted future distribution of the African skimmer in response to a changing climate, land cover and distance from water in the mid‐Zambezi Valley
Author(s) -
Gamundani Pioneer Taashwa,
Mpakairi Kudzai,
Magadza Christopher,
Kativu Shakkie,
Dhlomo Elmon
Publication year - 2020
Publication title -
african journal of ecology
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.499
H-Index - 54
eISSN - 1365-2028
pISSN - 0141-6707
DOI - 10.1111/aje.12703
Subject(s) - precipitation , habitat , land cover , environmental science , climate change , current (fluid) , biodiversity , geography , representative concentration pathways , distribution (mathematics) , physical geography , ecology , hydrology (agriculture) , land use , climate model , oceanography , geology , meteorology , biology , mathematical analysis , mathematics , geotechnical engineering
Climate models project a hot and dry future for Southern Africa. In this research, Maximum Entropy was used to model the extent to which climate change, land cover and distance from water edges may influence current and future distribution of the African skimmer in the mid‐Zambezi Valley. Global Biodiversity Information Facility data collected between the years 2000–2019 were used to develop the models. Three models were built: one for current distribution and two for future distribution under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6 and 6.0. Results revealed that annual precipitation and distance from water edges were the most important predictors of habitat suitability for the African skimmer under current and future climate. Temperature and land cover were least important in explaining current and future distribution of the species. The RCP 2.6 predicted future decrease in suitable habitat for the African skimmer in the mid‐Zambezi Valley, while RCP 6.0 predicted future increase in suitable habitat for the species. This research conclusively revealed that precipitation and distance from water edges were consistently key predictors of suitable habitat for the African skimmer.