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Using the MaxEnt model for assessing the impact of climate change on the Aurasian Aleppo pine distribution in Algeria
Author(s) -
Garah Kenza,
Bentouati Abdallah
Publication year - 2019
Publication title -
african journal of ecology
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.499
H-Index - 54
eISSN - 1365-2028
pISSN - 0141-6707
DOI - 10.1111/aje.12630
Subject(s) - aleppo pine , context (archaeology) , mediterranean climate , geography , climate change , climatology , distribution (mathematics) , physical geography , vegetation (pathology) , environmental science , ecology , geology , biology , archaeology , mathematics , mathematical analysis , medicine , pathology
In the context of recent climate changes and their impact on the vegetation cover in the southern shore of the Mediterranean, this paper deals with the potential distribution in the present and the future of the Aleppo pine in the north‐east of Algeria. Accordingly, this study focuses on modelling of the spatiotemporal distribution of the Aurasian Aleppo pine, by means of MaxEnt program. The models developed with MaxEnt showed good predictivity with AUC > 0.80 for the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios projected, respectively, for 2055 and 2085. The results showed that the annual thermal amplitude followed by altitude appear to be the main factors of the spatiotemporal distribution of Aleppo pine in the study area. Under current conditions, only 20% of the territory seems favourable to the presence of the Aleppo pine. However, future predictions expect an extension of the areas classified as “moderately favourable” to the Aleppo pine. In response to climate changes, the Aurasian Aleppo pine may display two contrasted tendencies: a progressive evolution in the north, and a regressive evolution in the south of the Aurès region as well as a displacement of suitable areas for Aleppo pine to the north.