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Planning the supply of aged care services: It's time to talk denominators
Author(s) -
Gibson Diane
Publication year - 2020
Publication title -
australasian journal on ageing
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.63
H-Index - 34
eISSN - 1741-6612
pISSN - 1440-6381
DOI - 10.1111/ajag.12823
Subject(s) - aged care , demography , medicine , service (business) , gerontology , actuarial science , business , sociology , marketing
Objectives This paper explores how changes in demography, service use and the aged care system have implications for the appropriateness of the denominator in the aged care provision ratio. Methods Official statistics were analysed to create five alternative scenarios for residential care planning in a 2000‐2027 time series. Results The four age‐based denominators and a revised denominator incorporating age‐ and sex‐specific disability rates generated diverse levels of absolute supply. The 75+ denominator produced 1400 fewer beds than the 70+ denominator by 2018, but over 14 000 additional beds by 2027. Conclusion The 70+ based ratio developed almost forty years ago has served its purpose reasonably well. However, changes in the nature of the aged care system, different patterns of use by age and sex, and demographic changes suggest that long‐term aged care planning requires careful review in choosing a more robust version of the provision ratio for the future.