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Impacts of increased bioenergy demand on global food markets: an AgMIP economic model intercomparison
Author(s) -
LotzeCampen Hermann,
Lampe Martin,
Kyle Page,
Fujimori Shinichiro,
Havlik Petr,
Meijl Hans,
Hasegawa Tomoko,
Popp Alexander,
Schmitz Christoph,
Tabeau Andrzej,
Valin Hugo,
Willenbockel Dirk,
Wise Marshall
Publication year - 2014
Publication title -
agricultural economics
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.29
H-Index - 82
eISSN - 1574-0862
pISSN - 0169-5150
DOI - 10.1111/agec.12092
Subject(s) - bioenergy , natural resource economics , greenhouse gas , agriculture , agricultural land , agricultural economics , climate change , climate change mitigation , environmental science , land use , economics , cellulosic ethanol , biofuel , ecology , engineering , cellulose , chemical engineering , biology
Integrated Assessment studies have shown that meeting ambitious greenhouse gas mitigation targets will require substantial amounts of bioenergy as part of the future energy mix. In the course of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP), five global agro‐economic models were used to analyze a future scenario with global demand for ligno‐cellulosic bioenergy rising to about 100 ExaJoule in 2050. From this exercise a tentative conclusion can be drawn that ambitious climate change mitigation need not drive up global food prices much, if the extra land required for bioenergy production is accessible or if the feedstock, for example, from forests, does not directly compete for agricultural land. Agricultural price effects across models by the year 2050 from high bioenergy demand in an ambitious mitigation scenario appear to be much smaller (+5% average across models) than from direct climate impacts on crop yields in a high‐emission scenario (+25% average across models). However, potential future scarcities of water and nutrients, policy‐induced restrictions on agricultural land expansion, as well as potential welfare losses have not been specifically looked at in this exercise.