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Stocks‐to‐use ratios and prices as indicators of vulnerability to spikes in global cereal markets
Author(s) -
Bobenrieth Eugenio,
Wright Brian,
Zeng Di
Publication year - 2013
Publication title -
agricultural economics
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.29
H-Index - 82
eISSN - 1574-0862
pISSN - 0169-5150
DOI - 10.1111/agec.12049
Subject(s) - vulnerability (computing) , economic shortage , economics , index (typography) , agricultural economics , monetary economics , econometrics , natural resource economics , computer science , linguistics , philosophy , computer security , government (linguistics) , world wide web
We identify critical stocks‐to‐use ratios (SURs) for major grains and for an index of total calories from these grains. The latter appears to be a promising indicator of vulnerability to large price spikes when the current price shows no cause for concern. More generally, our results suggest that stocks data, though no doubt unreliable, can be valuable complements to price data as indicators of vulnerability to shortages and price spikes.