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Riding the Energy Transition: Oil beyond 2040
Author(s) -
Cherif Reda,
Hasanov Fuad,
Pande Aditya
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
asian economic policy review
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.58
H-Index - 20
eISSN - 1748-3131
pISSN - 1832-8105
DOI - 10.1111/aepr.12317
Subject(s) - coal , economics , life span , barrel (horology) , consumption (sociology) , oil consumption , peak oil , fossil fuel , natural resource economics , energy transition , crude oil , technological change , oil price , engineering , macroeconomics , climate change , petroleum engineering , monetary economics , waste management , ecology , medicine , mechanical engineering , gerontology , social science , alternative medicine , panacea (medicine) , pathology , sociology , automotive engineering , biology
Recent technological developments and past technology transitions suggest that the world could be on the verge of a profound shift in transportation technology. The return of the electric car and its adoption, like that of the motor vehicle in place of horses in early 20th century, could cut oil consumption substantially in the coming decades. Our analysis suggests that oil as the main fuel for transportation could have a much shorter life span left than commonly assumed. In the fast adoption scenario, oil prices could converge to the level of coal prices, about $15 per barrel in 2015 prices by the early 2040s. In this possible future, oil could become the new coal.