Trade, the Staple Theory of Growth, and Fluctuations in Colonial S ingapore, 1900–39

Our paper enquires into the nexus between trade, growth, and fluctuations in the B ritish colony of S ingapore during the early twentieth century. Hitherto, little quantitative economic history has been written on this great entrepôt of S outheast A sia due to a lack of data. We overcome this limitation by utilising the gross domestic product series recently constructed for the pre‐war period by S ugimoto. This comprehensive data set enables us to explore the relevance and applicability of the staple theory of export‐led growth to colonial S ingapore through cliometric analyses. The results suggest that foreign trade had acted both as an engine of growth and a source of economic instability.