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Predicting the spread of A edes albopictus in A ustralia under current and future climates: Multiple approaches and datasets to incorporate potential evolutionary divergence
Author(s) -
Hill Matthew P.,
Axford Jason K.,
Hoffmann Ary A.
Publication year - 2014
Publication title -
austral ecology
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.688
H-Index - 87
eISSN - 1442-9993
pISSN - 1442-9985
DOI - 10.1111/aec.12105
Subject(s) - aedes albopictus , range (aeronautics) , ecology , invasive species , divergence (linguistics) , species distribution , limiting , introduced species , climate change , mainland , geography , biology , habitat , aedes aegypti , linguistics , philosophy , larva , engineering , mechanical engineering , materials science , composite material
When predicting the potential and future invasive range of a species, there is a growing appreciation that insights about factors limiting distributions can be provided by using multiple modelling approaches and by incorporating information from different parts of a species range. Here we apply this strategy to build on previous CLIMEX models to predict the invasion potential of A edes albopictus , the A sian tiger mosquito, in mainland A ustralia. A combination of CLIMEX and MAXENT modelling indicated that the mosquito was expected to become widespread along the eastern seaboard and extend into northern T asmania, but to remain restricted to the coastal fringe, a pattern which is not expected to shift much under climate change. However, a recent expansion of A . albopictus in N orth A merica points to evolutionary changes affecting the distribution of this species; when the N orth A merican range is included in models, A . albopictus is predicted to become much more widespread and extend inland and into W estern A ustralia. These patterns highlight the potential impact of evolution on species distributions arising from multiple introductions or in situ evolution. By considering future climate scenarios, we demonstrate that there is likely to be a persistent public health threat associated with invasion by this species.