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Young adult predictors of alcohol dependence to age 53: a 44‐year prospective cohort study of Danish men
Author(s) -
Sørensen Holger J.,
Manzardo Ann,
JustØstergaard Emilie,
Penick Elizabeth C.,
Becker Ulrik M. D.,
Mortensen Erik Lykke,
Knop Joachim
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
addiction
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.424
H-Index - 193
eISSN - 1360-0443
pISSN - 0965-2140
DOI - 10.1111/add.15209
Subject(s) - medicine , odds ratio , confidence interval , prospective cohort study , cohort study , record linkage , alcohol use disorder , cohort , danish , confounding , alcohol dependence , demography , psychiatry , alcohol , population , environmental health , biochemistry , chemistry , linguistics , philosophy , sociology
Aims To examine if (1) there is a positive association between drinking volume in young men and life‐time risk of alcohol dependence (AD) and (2) there are other associations between young adulthood factors and life‐time risk of AD. Design Prospective cohort study of sons of fathers with alcohol use disorder (AUD) and matched low‐risk controls without paternal AUD. Setting and participants A total of 204 men, who were assessed at baseline in 1979 at age 19–20 years, were followed through record linkage with Danish registers and consecutive psychiatric interviews at the ages of 33, 43 and 53 years. Measurements AD diagnoses were interview‐based according to the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, 3rd edition, or made by treating clinicians according to the International Classification of Diseases (ICD) revision 8 (ICD‐8) until 1993 and revision 10 (ICD‐10) from 1994.We estimated odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the development of AD after adjustment for confounders including smoking, social status and paternal AUD. Findings The following variables from the examination at age 19–20 independently predicted life‐time AD: alcohol consumption > 21 beverages/week versus 0–21 [odds ratio (OR) = 2.46, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.22–4.97], police contact (OR = 2.60, 95% CI = 1.28–5.28) and institutionalization related to the individual (OR = 2.90, 95% CI = 1.39–6.02). Compared with < 1 beverages/week, the risk for AD did not increase significantly for drinking volume categories: 1–7, 8–14 or 15–21 beverages/week. Conclusion Independently of other risk factors in young adulthood, young Danish men's risk for life‐time alcohol dependence appears to be predicted by a drinking volume at age 19–20 years exceeding 21 beverages per week.