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Young cohorts of Russians drink less: age–period–cohort modelling of alcohol use prevalence 1994–2016
Author(s) -
Radaev Vadim,
Roshchina Yana
Publication year - 2019
Publication title -
addiction
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.424
H-Index - 193
eISSN - 1360-0443
pISSN - 0965-2140
DOI - 10.1111/add.14535
Subject(s) - demography , ethnic group , cohort , cohort effect , marital status , medicine , cohort study , logistic regression , residence , gerontology , environmental health , population , pathology , sociology , anthropology
Background and aims Young Russians have been drinking less alcohol, and fewer strong spirits in particular, in recent years. This study aimed to disentangle age, period and birth cohort effects for the first time in Russia to improve our understanding of these trends. Design Age, period and cohort analysis of annual nationally representative repeated cross‐sectional surveys [Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey– Higher School of Economics (RLMS‐HSE)] using separate logistic models for each gender. Setting Russia 1994–2016. Participants A total of 195 234 respondents aged 14–85 years. Measurements Age (14 groups: 14‐17 to 76+ years), period (21 years: 1994–2016) and birth cohorts (17 groups: 1920–24 to 2000–02). Outcome measures were 30‐day overall and beverage‐specific alcohol use prevalence accounting for vodka, moonshine, beer and wine. Controls were per capita income, education, marital status, ethnicity, residence type and regional climate. Findings Controlling for age and period effects, the most recent cohorts had lower rates of participation than older cohorts. Findings were valid for females born in 1995–2002 ( P = 0.000) and males born in 1990–94 ( P = 0.002) and 1995–2002 ( P = 0.000). The period effects were strong in 1994–2003 due to intensive substitution of beer in place of vodka. Period effects were also important in determining a decline of prevalence in 2008–15 due to restrictive alcohol policy. Age effects showed an inverse U ‐shaped trend in both genders, except for moonshine and wine. Overall, drinking profiles were beverage‐specific. Models indicated diverse beverage‐specific effects of income, ethnicity, education, marital status and residence on the prevalence of alcohol use. Conclusion The recent downward trend in alcohol use in Russia appears to be attributable to reduced participation rates among younger cohorts born after 1990.