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Liquor licensing or confounding events? Further questions about the interpretations of Menéndez et al . (2015)
Author(s) -
Humphreys David K.
Publication year - 2016
Publication title -
addiction
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.424
H-Index - 193
eISSN - 1360-0443
pISSN - 0965-2140
DOI - 10.1111/add.13205
Subject(s) - harm , license , harm reduction , psychology , human factors and ergonomics , suicide prevention , injury prevention , poison control , criminology , occupational safety and health , confounding , social psychology , medicine , political science , environmental health , law , public health , nursing , pathology
A recent research report by Menéndez et al. examined the cumulative effect of a series of licensing restrictions that took place in New South Wales in 2008. The results appear extremely encouraging, estimating a 31.27% reduction in Actual Bodily Harm (ABH) and a 39.70% reduction in Grievous Bodily Harm (GBH). Their report was criticised in commentary by Shepherd and Page due to the absence of comparison condition and because of potential confounding, due to the effects of the global economic recession. Despite a spirited defence in their rejoinder, there are important unanswered questions about the validity of these findings. This letter to the editor provides a brief overview of some additional considerations. While there is an understandable desire to report optimistic findings in relation to licensing restrictions. It appears that the authors have submitted the results of these analyses without thoroughly and rigorously considering alternative explanations