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Incorporating habitat distribution in wildlife disease models: conservation implications for the threat of squirrelpox on the I sle of A rran
Author(s) -
Macpherson M. F.,
Davidson R. S.,
Duncan D. B.,
Lurz P. W.,
Jarrott A.,
White A.
Publication year - 2016
Publication title -
animal conservation
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.111
H-Index - 85
eISSN - 1469-1795
pISSN - 1367-9430
DOI - 10.1111/acv.12219
Subject(s) - outbreak , habitat , wildlife , disease , infectious disease (medical specialty) , population , ecology , emerging infectious disease , biology , geography , wildlife disease , range (aeronautics) , environmental health , medicine , virology , materials science , pathology , composite material
Emerging infectious diseases are a substantial threat to native populations. The spread of disease through naive native populations will depend on both demographic and disease parameters, as well as on habitat suitability and connectivity. Using the potential spread of squirrelpox virus ( SQPV ) on the I sle of A rran as a case study, we develop mathematical models to examine the impact of an emerging disease on a population in a complex landscape of different habitat types. Furthermore, by considering a range of disease parameters, we infer more generally how complex landscapes interact with disease characteristics to determine the spread and persistence of disease. Specific findings indicate that a SQPV outbreak on A rran is likely to be short lived and localized to the point of introduction allowing recovery of red squirrels to pre‐infection densities; this has important consequences for the conservation of red squirrels. More generally, we find that the extent of disease spread is dependent on the rare passage of infection through poor quality corridors connecting good quality habitats. Acute, highly transmissible infectious diseases are predicted to spread rapidly causing high mortality. Nonetheless, the disease typically fades out following local epidemics and is not supported in the long term. A chronic infectious disease is predicted to spread more slowly but can remain endemic in the population. This allows the disease to spread more extensively in the long term as it increases the chance of spread between poorly connected populations. Our results highlight how a detailed understanding of landscape connectivity is crucial when considering conservation strategies to protect native species from disease threats.