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The Effects of the 2006 R ussian Alcohol Policy on Alcohol‐Related Mortality: An Interrupted Time Series Analysis
Author(s) -
Pridemore William Alex,
Chamlin Mitchell B.,
Kaylen Maria T.,
Andreev Evgeny
Publication year - 2014
Publication title -
alcoholism: clinical and experimental research
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.267
H-Index - 153
eISSN - 1530-0277
pISSN - 0145-6008
DOI - 10.1111/acer.12256
Subject(s) - alcohol , alcoholic cardiomyopathy , cirrhosis , medicine , alcoholic liver disease , demography , interrupted time series analysis , injury prevention , poison control , ethanol , environmental health , heart failure , cardiomyopathy , biology , biochemistry , statistics , mathematics , sociology
Background The aim of this study was to determine the impact of a set of 2006 R ussian alcohol policies on alcohol‐related mortality in the country. Methods We used autoregressive integrated moving average interrupted time series techniques to model the impact of the policy on the number of sex‐specific monthly deaths of those aged 15+ years due to alcohol poisoning, alcoholic cardiomyopathy, alcoholic liver cirrhosis, and alcohol‐related mental and behavioral disorders. The time series began in J anuary 2000 and ended in D ecember 2010. The alcohol policy was implemented in J anuary 2006. Results The alcohol policy resulted in a significant gradual and sustained decline in male deaths due to alcohol poisoning (ω o = −92.631, p < 0.008, δ 1 = 0.883, p < 0.001) and in significant immediate and sustained declines in male (ω 0 = −63.20, p < 0.05) and female (ω 0 = −64.28, p < 0.005) deaths due to alcoholic liver cirrhosis. Conclusions The 2006 suite of alcohol policies in R ussia was responsible for an annual decline of about 6,700 male alcohol poisoning deaths and about 760 male and about 770 female alcoholic liver cirrhosis deaths. Without the alcohol policy, male alcohol poisoning deaths would have been 35% higher and male and female alcoholic liver cirrhosis deaths would have been 9 and 15% higher, respectively. We contextualize our findings in relation to declining mortality in R ussia and to results from recent studies of the impact of this law on other causes of death.