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Background  Little is known about accuracy of common risk prediction scores in elderly patients suffering from hip fractures. The objective of this study was to investigate accuracy of the Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity ( POSSUM ) score, Portsmouth‐ POSSUM  (P‐ POSSUM ) score and the Nottingham Hip Fracture Score ( NHFS ) for prediction of mortality and morbidity in this patient group.    Methods  This was a prospective single centre observational study on 997 patients suffering out‐of‐hospital cervical, trochanteric or subtrochanteric fracture of the neck of the femur. Calibration and discrimination was assessed by calculating the ratio of observed to expected events (O:E) and areas under receiver operating characteristics curves ( ROC ).    Results  The 30‐day mortality was 6.2% and complications, as defined by  POSSUM , occurred in 41% of the patients. Overall O:E ratios for  POSSUM , P‐ POSSUM  and  NHFS  scores for 30‐day mortality were 0.90, 0.98, and 0.79 respectively. The models underestimated mortality in the lower risk bands and overestimated mortality in the higher risk bands. In contrast,  POSSUM  predicted morbidity well with O:E ratios close to unity in most risk bands. The areas under the  ROC  curves for the scoring systems was 0.60‐0.67.    Conclusion  The  POSSUM  score and  NHFS  show moderate calibration and poor discrimination in this cohort. The results suggest that mortality and morbidity in hip fracture patients are largely dependent on factors that are not included in these scores.

acta anaesthesiologica scandinavica

Accuracy of the Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity score and the Nottingham risk score in hip fracture patients in Sweden — A prospective observational study