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Quantitative Analysis of Natural and Human Factors of Oasis Change in the Tail of Shiyang River over the Past 60 Years
Author(s) -
CHEN Yong,
YANG Guojing,
ZHOU Lihua,
LIAO Jie,
WEI Xuan
Publication year - 2020
Publication title -
acta geologica sinica ‐ english edition
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.444
H-Index - 61
eISSN - 1755-6724
pISSN - 1000-9515
DOI - 10.1111/1755-6724.14537
Subject(s) - land reclamation , sustainable development , natural (archaeology) , natural resource , population , geography , water resource management , driving factors , socioeconomic development , environmental resource management , environmental science , physical geography , ecology , china , economics , demography , economic growth , sociology , archaeology , biology
The human and natural factors complicit in the driving forces of oasis change have always received considerable interest from the international research community. In this study, we used principal component analysis of natural and socioeconomic statistical factors to quantitatively analyze the causal relationships and their contributions to the observed periodic expansion or shrinkage of the Minqin Oasis over almost 60 years. Our results show that human factors were the dominant factors governing expansion or shrinkage, with average contributions of 69.38% and 76.16%, respectively. Moreover, policy decisions have been the pivotal human factors. Under the influence of various policies, we have found that water resource utilization, land reclamation, population explosion, ecological protection and economic development have each played leading roles in different periods. This study provides a scientific basis for modelling the dynamics of an oasis for sustainable management.