Open AccessEconomic evaluation of border closure for a generic severe pandemic threat using New Zealand Treasury methods
Author(s) -
Boyd Matt,
Mansoor Osman D.,
Baker Michael G.,
Wilson Nick
Publication year - 2018
Publication title -
australian and new zealand journal of public health
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.946
H-Index - 76
eISSN - 1753-6405
pISSN - 1326-0200
DOI - 10.1111/1753-6405.12818
Subject(s) - treasury , pandemic , closure (psychology) , influenza pandemic , economic cost , public health , work (physics) , business , geography , political science , economics , covid-19 , medicine , engineering , mechanical engineering , neoclassical economics , disease , archaeology , nursing , pathology , infectious disease (medical specialty) , law
Abstract Objective: To perform a comprehensive economic evaluation of border closure for an island nation in the face of severe pandemic scenarios. Methods: The costing tool developed by the New Zealand (NZ) Treasury (CBAx) was used for the analyses. Pandemic scenarios were as per previous work; 1 epidemiological data were from past New Zealand influenza pandemics. Results: The net present value of successful border closure was NZ$7.86 billion for Scenario A (half the mortality rate of the 1918 influenza pandemic) and $144 billion for preventing a more severe pandemic (10 times the mortality of scenario A). Cost–utility analyses found border closure was relatively cost‐effective, at $14,400 per QALY gained in Scenario A, and cost‐saving for Scenario B (taking the societal perspective). Conclusions: This work quantifies the economic benefits and costs from border closure for New Zealand under specific assumptions in a generic but severe pandemic threat (e.g. influenza, synthetic bioweapon). Preparing for such a pandemic response seems wise for an island nation, although successful border closure may only be feasible if planned well ahead. Implications for public health: Policy makers responsible for generic pandemic planning should explore how border closure could be implemented, including practical and legal frameworks.