Open Access中国成人冠心病合并糖耐量受损人群的2型糖尿病风险预测模型
Author(s) -
Xu Shishi,
Scott Charles A.B.,
Coleman Ruth L.,
Tuomilehto Jaakko,
Holman Rury R.
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
journal of diabetes
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.949
H-Index - 43
eISSN - 1753-0407
pISSN - 1753-0393
DOI - 10.1111/1753-0407.13175
Subject(s) - medicine , impaired glucose tolerance , diabetes mellitus , type 2 diabetes , impaired fasting glucose , body mass index , confidence interval , framingham risk score , endocrinology , disease
Aims Robust diabetes risk estimates in Asian patients with impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) and coronary heart disease (CHD) are lacking. We developed a Chinese type 2 diabetes risk calculator using Acarbose Cardiovascular Evaluation (ACE) trial data. Methods There were 3105 placebo‐treated ACE participants with requisite data for model development. Clinically relevant variables, and those showing nominal univariate association with new‐onset diabetes ( P < .10), were entered into BASIC (clinical variables only), EXTENDED (clinical variables plus routinely available laboratory results), and FULL (all candidate variables) logistic regression models. External validation was performed using the Luzhou prospective cohort of 1088 Chinese patients with IGT. Results Over median 5.0 years, 493 (15.9%) ACE participants developed diabetes. Lower age, higher body mass index, and use of corticosteroids or thiazide diuretics were associated with higher diabetes risk. C‐statistics for the BASIC (using these variables), EXTENDED (adding male sex, fasting plasma glucose, 2‐hour glucose, and HbA1c), and FULL models were 0.610, 0.757, and 0.761 respectively. The EXTENDED model predicted a lower 13.9% 5‐year diabetes risk in the Luzhou cohort than observed (35.2%, 95% confidence interval 31.3%‐39.5%, C‐statistic 0.643). Conclusion A risk prediction model using routinely available clinical variables can be used to estimate diabetes risk in Chinese people with CHD and IGT.