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Growth of the Decision Tree: Advances in Bottom‐Up Climate Change Risk Management
Author(s) -
Ray Patrick Alexander,
Taner Mehmet Ümit,
Schlef Katherine Elizabeth,
Wi Sungwook,
Khan Hassaan Furqan,
Freeman Sarah St George,
Brown Casey Matthew
Publication year - 2019
Publication title -
jawra journal of the american water resources association
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.957
H-Index - 105
eISSN - 1752-1688
pISSN - 1093-474X
DOI - 10.1111/1752-1688.12701
Subject(s) - computer science , climate change , robustness (evolution) , warning system , weighting , risk analysis (engineering) , decision support system , bayesian network , risk management , environmental resource management , environmental science , data mining , machine learning , business , ecology , medicine , telecommunications , biochemistry , chemistry , radiology , finance , biology , gene
There has recently been a return in climate change risk management practice to bottom‐up, robustness‐based planning paradigms introduced 40 years ago. The World Bank's decision tree framework (DTF) for “confronting climate uncertainty” is one incarnation of those paradigms. In order to better represent the state of the art in climate change risk assessment and evaluation techniques, this paper proposes: (1) an update to the DTF, replacing its “climate change stress test” with a multidimensional stress test; and (2) the addition of a Bayesian network framework that represents joint probabilistic behavior of uncertain parameters as sensitivity factors to aid in the weighting of scenarios of concern (the combination of conditions under which a water system fails to meet its performance targets). Using the updated DTF, water system planners and project managers would be better able to understand the relative magnitudes of the varied risks they face, and target investments in adaptation measures to best reduce their vulnerabilities to change. Next steps for the DTF include enhancements in: modeling of extreme event risks; coupling of human‐hydrologic systems; integration of surface water and groundwater systems; the generation of tradeoffs between economic, social, and ecological factors; incorporation of water quality considerations; and interactive data visualization.