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A High‐Resolution National‐Scale Hydrologic Forecast System from a Global Ensemble Land Surface Model
Author(s) -
Snow Alan D.,
Christensen Scott D.,
Swain Nathan R.,
Nelson E. James,
Ames Daniel P.,
Jones Norman L.,
Ding Deng,
Noman Nawajish S.,
David Cédric H.,
Pappenberger Florian,
Zsoter Ervin
Publication year - 2016
Publication title -
jawra journal of the american water resources association
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.957
H-Index - 105
eISSN - 1752-1688
pISSN - 1093-474X
DOI - 10.1111/1752-1688.12434
Subject(s) - streamflow , flood forecasting , flood warning , meteorology , environmental science , scale (ratio) , surface runoff , global forecast system , warning system , computer science , routing (electronic design automation) , hydrological modelling , flood myth , land cover , climatology , land use , weather research and forecasting model , cartography , geography , drainage basin , geology , ecology , telecommunications , computer network , civil engineering , archaeology , engineering , biology
Warning systems with the ability to predict floods several days in advance have the potential to benefit tens of millions of people. Accordingly, large‐scale streamflow prediction systems such as the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service or the Global Flood Awareness System are limited to coarse resolutions. This article presents a method for routing global runoff ensemble forecasts and global historical runoff generated by the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts model using the Routing Application for Parallel computatIon of Discharge to produce high spatial resolution 15‐day stream forecasts, approximate recurrence intervals, and warning points at locations where streamflow is predicted to exceed the recurrence interval thresholds. The processing method involves distributing the computations using computer clusters to facilitate processing of large watersheds with high‐density stream networks. In addition, the Streamflow Prediction Tool web application was developed for visualizing analyzed results at both the regional level and at the reach level of high‐density stream networks. The application formed part of the base hydrologic forecasting service available to the National Flood Interoperability Experiment and can potentially transform the nation's forecast ability by incorporating ensemble predictions at the nearly 2.7 million reaches of the National Hydrography Plus Version 2 Dataset into the national forecasting system.